Something Never Discussed During the Health Care Debate: Supply

The House passed the Senate Health Care plan, as well as a series of Reconciliation measures designed to force those without health insurance to buy it (or face a penalty), as well as taxing upper income taxpayers to subsidize insurance for those who make under $88,000/year.

Regardless of whether you agree with this or not, and I clearly do not, there is one question that no one seems to be asking. Let's assume there are 45 million or so people in the U.S. who do not consume health care because they do not have insurance. This bill will insure almost all of them, so assume there will be at least 40 million new health care consumers in the U.S. in five years. Even with the influx of money that could be spent from the insurance premiums and payments by insurers to health care providers, who will be treating these patients?

As far as I can tell from cursory glances at the legislation and more in-depth study of the news reports on it, there is nothing in the legislation to support the creation of new medical schools. How will you increase the consumer base of medical care in the U.S. by 20% or more without any increase in the number of medical doctors, nurses, and other health care workers? How will the system handle all the new demand for services? Doctors are incredibly overworked as it is.

Money can build hospitals and buy equipment, but medical schools are the only way to tilt the balance of supply and demand. If the supply cannot keep up with the new artificially-inflated demand, the supply is going to get more expensive no matter what the government does. If the government was serious about cutting the costs of health care, it would provide incentives to universities to create medical schools and hospitals to create residency programs. After a few years with larger classes of new doctors, there would be more supply to meet the new demand for services, and costs would stabilize or go down.

That is how you solve a health care problem. Forcing millions more people into a health care system that operates at or near capacity on a regular basis is not going to solve any problem. Giving people insurance that they cannot use because the system is flooded with patients who cannot be seen is a disaster waiting to happen.